Events

An old Chinese saying says, "May you live in interesting times." And indeed, those times are upon us. The Dow and the S&P Index are at record multi-year lows. Over the last year, financial giants Bear Stearns, Lehman, WAMU and Wachovia have fallen by the wayside, and retailers Circuit City, Linens ’N Things and Mervyns are in bankruptcy, while the automakers are on the brink of collapse. Layoffs are rampant, and the outlook for the rest of 2009 is weak. Many would say that this is the worst economic crisis they've ever seen in their lifetimes.

Could we have seen this coming? Would it have been possible to predict the crisis we live in today? And now that we are here, what can we expect going forward?

Ming Lo would argue that our economy runs in cycles and that bubbles, and busts, are inevitable in the capitalist system. If we pay attention, there are ways to spot the tops and the bottoms of these cycles. We may not always know the exact depth or height of each cycle, but there are indicators that can tell us a top or a bottom is on the horizon.

Over the last 20 years, we have seen four stock crises and two real estate tops. Having some indication that these events are on the horizon could make a significant difference in the decisions we make, in our investing, and in our personal lives. "Finding Opportunities in Interesting Times," will discuss the nature of past stock and real estate cycles, as well as the indicators that can help us anticipate these events. Moreover, we'll talk about the nature and timing of a recovery, and the road that lies before us.